Suez Return Could Leave Capacity 10% Above Demand
Container lines are routing more Asia-Europe services back through the Suez Canal, shortening voyages and releasing ship capacity that Cape of Good Hope diversions had tied up. The shift, plus a large orderbook, is turning a squeeze into supply pressure. Bimco and Sea-Intelligence say the return to Suez reduces ship demand in distance terms even if volumes keep growing, because the same containers travel shorter routes. Sea-Intelligence estimates about 19% of Asia-Europe capacity has already moved back toward Suez.
Bimco said in a new analysis that if routings fully normalize, ship supply in container trades could stand around 10% above demand. It forecasts fleet capacity to expand by 9% in 2027, with an orderbook equal to 42% of the existing fleet. Congestion and delays have kept some vessels unavailable, but carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, COSCO, CMA CGM and OOCL have begun restoring transits via Suez.
On Asia-Europe, Asia-Mediterranean and India-Mediterranean routes, shorter transits free ships for redeployment and increase available slots as services shift back to Suez. Xeneta said some Far East congestion is likely to ease after typhoons, which would return more vessels to schedules. Bimco said accelerated deliveries and limited recycling underpin faster supply growth, and Sea-Intelligence said the pace of Suez normalization will set how much ship demand falls. Under both its open or closed Strait of Hormuz scenarios, Bimco said ship supply grows faster than demand in 2027.